SNP increase lead in first poll of the year

The SNP have increased their lead against Labour in the first Scottish opinion poll of 2007.  The SNP are describing the Channel 4 News / YouGov poll as a hammer blow to Labour and say that it is the first time ever in an election year that the SNP has been ahead of Labour.

The poll gives the SNP a lead of 2% in the constituency vote and 5% in the regional vote.

Converted into parliamentary seats this would give the SNP 44 MSPs, Labour 39, Tories 18, Lib Dems 17, Greens 7 and others 4.  The SSP would be wiped out.

Labour and the Lib Dems could only form a government with the assistance of the Tories.  The SNP would require the support of the Lib Dems and the Greens to form a government - a much more likely outcome based on these figures.

Labour now have a real problem.  More later.

Constituency Vote

	Jan 07 (%)
SNP	33
Labour	31
Tories	14
LibDem	14
Green	5
SSP	1

Regional Vote

	Jan 07 (%)
SNP	33
Labour	28
Tories	15
LibDem	11
Green	7
SSP	1

Comments

[Y is a vowel]

oddly, this is good news for the tories who faced a weekend of predictions they would be down to 15 msp's. am i right in noting that - with exception of the fuel protests - the scottish conservatives have never polled above 14%. a sign that their vote is rising and holding..?

[Scottish Political News]

Sorry Y is a vowel I think not. For a long time now the Tories have been between 13% and 15% and even on one occassion (Mori Sep 05) up to 16% on the first vote. On the 2nd vote the Tories have got as high as 17%, but only once.

I can't read this as the Tory vote rising. They still haven't even reached the giddy hights of 18% which is what they polled when they were ousted in 1997.

It is a shocking state of affairs that despite a despised labour government in Westminster and one that is seen as ineffective in Holyrood that the Tories are completel failing to gain any decent kind of leap.

What is interesting in this poll (other than the obvious) is the drop in support for the Lib Dems, however managing to maintain their number of MSPs.

[Grant Thoms]

These are more fascinating polling results. Just watched the analysis of John Curtice, Iain McWhirter and Tom Gordon on Newsnight Scotland and this is the first time I have heard this group give such strong credence to the SNP standing so late in the electoral period, and muttering about Labour discontent with Jack McConnell, the leader which is going to lose them the Scottish Executive
(see: http://news.bbc.co.uk/nolavconsole/ukfs_news/hi/bb_rm_fs.stm?nbram=1&bbram=1&nbwm=1&bbwm=1&news=1)