Good Day, Bad Day

Only 100 days to go until the election and McConnell has a bit of a good day and a bit of bad day.

The revelations that McConnell was questioned by the police about the cash for gongs inquiry made it a bad day for McConnell. To be fair to him it does seem to be a bit ridiculous that he was questioned about Coli Boyd's elevation to the Lords. Anyone with an ounce of political knowledge could have told the police that it wasn't really that unusual, in fact it was the norm for the Lord Advocate to be elevated to the Upper House after stepping down. Apparently this was McConnell's only nomination so really I don't understand why he was questioned.

However, this close to an election mud is very sticky. Today's headlines will have struck a chord with many Labour waverers and simply reinforce the strong perception that Labour throughout the UK is just a tad dodgy and, dare I say it, sleazy and hungry for power at all costs. I have no doubt that the SNP will make hay while the sun shines.

The good day bit for McConnell comes over a rather sad event. Dennis Canavan's announcement that he is to step down from Falkirk West should make the seat a no-brainer for Labour come May and an easy gain in the bag. Canavan won the seat in 1999 as an Independent after Labour refused to select him despite serving the seat diligently for them over many years at Westminster.

Every gain for Labour will be vital on 3rd May if they have any hope of staying in power. The seat is solid Labour. In 2003 Canavan gained 56% of the vote and Labour 17% (73% in total) and in 1999 Canavan gained 55% and Labour 19 % (74% in total). When Canavan stood as a Labour candidate in 1997 he gained 59% of the vote. All the combined votes for Canavan and Labour won't go to the new Labour candidate, but it would be surprising if the bulk of them didn't. The new Labour MSP won't have anywhere near as big a majority as Canavan, but it will be enough to see a Labour gain.

Grant Thoms over at Tartanhero thinks that this could make Falkirk West a target for the SNP. I just can't see how. There is no way a majority of Canavan's votes will go to Michael Matheson MSP (the SNP candidate). If that did happen then we would be seeing an SNP landslide and I don't see any polls pointing towards that.

Looking at the last few elections the SNP only scored 17% to 18%, hardly a great base to launch a winning campaign from. Even in pre-Independent Canavan days when it was just the SNP versus Labour, the SNP only got 23% of the vote. Grant highlights the 2000 by-election when the SNP did come close with 40% compared to 44% for Labour, however as the later results proved that was simply a by-election.

However, as always events could change the story. One crucial event will be who Labour choose to select as their candidate. Will they play it safe with a local well known candidate or will they risk parachuting a McConnell favourite in?

Comments

[Grant Thoms]

What was odd in Colin Boyd's case and now the present Lord Advocate, is that he wasn't ennobled on appointment. Previous Lord Advocates were made peers on appointment so that they could answer for the Government in the House of Lords on Scottish judicial matters (a wholly unsatisfactory role considering they are also head of the prosecution service but that's another matter). Still, when mud is flying it is amazing where it will stick.

On Falkirk West, I think you should give credit to Canavan creating an anti-Labour vote as much as retaining some old Labour supporters. The Council being elected the same day has an SNP-led administration which has won a string of by-elections in the area over the past 2 years - some with thumping majorities.

[Jeff]

First of all, I was unaware of Denis Canavan's family history which is deeply saddening. The BBC has a good run down of his "colourful" past and the man has gone way up in my estimation, and he was starting off from a fairly lofty point to begin with.

But I think his stepping down will combine with other factors to give a largely uneventful night come May the 3rd. The other contributing factors include Jean Turner's omission in Strathkelvin & Bearsden, the return of Iain Gray (complete with red cape and suspected Westminster backing), the fiercely staunch Labour stance of most Glaswegians, the splitting of the SSP list vote by Comrade Tommy's Solidarity party and some fairly unintentionally biased polling data giving some nationalist false hope (chiefly YouGov).

One or two seats will probably make all the difference in 2007 from what I can see so Denis Canavan stepping down for Labour to get in in Falkirk West (and I just can't see the SNP winning in Falkirk somehow) will be a fairly significant moment in retrospect come the beginning of Jack's 3rd term.

3rd term, it seems bizarre even to comtemplate it.