Today saw the first in a series of new polls in the run up to the Scottish Elections. Firstly, this is great news as Scotland has been somewhat bereft of polls in recent years. So, thanks to the Scotsman for starting them up again. Good to see them using ICM who I consider to have some of the better / more accurate polling tactics.
However, what today's poll demonstrates is that the election next year is, for the first time since devolution, wide open. I may have been a bit premature yesterday by claiming that the Nats had once again peaked too soon!
Labour have a got a real problem. They are clearly unpopular. I don't believe that people are turning to the SNP because of independence or due to their policies. They have (correctly) been pretty quiet on the policy front. Despite today's poll showing a big increase in support for independence (51% claim they would vote for it), I still don't believe that this is at the forefront of people's minds when they go into the ballot box. People are turning to the SNP as they are the alternative to the Labour Party which they are leaving in droves.
It takes more than one poll to make a trend and it will be interesting to track this trend as the Scotsman continues to roll out new polls. However, there have been other polls recently and they too have all shown a fairly consistent lead for SNP. Can they hold on to it?
Hopefully the Scotsman will print the actual % results next time rather than just a graph which makes you guess the percentage points.
One of the reasons why (1) SNP is doing well in the polls, and (2) why Independence is higher in popular support is because SNP activists are out in force throughout the country. People are fed up with Labour and much of its support is staying at home, but my returns are showing a clear Labour to SNP switch in Labour heartlands. Maybe not as much as I would like but a 6-10% swing isn't bad going. And of course, we always ask the Independence question now which was only formally accepted as core canvassing script in 2003.
Posted by: Eternal Hope | 03 November 2006 at 07:28 PM